Arizona Economic Update

I went to the Economic Club of Phoenix meeting last week, and they had an interesting update on Arizona's Economy. They had a little quiz for all attendees entitled "The Good, The Bad, The Ugly." I received permission from the Dean of the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, Dean Mittelstaedt, to reproduce the quiz. See below for questions and answers.

Enjoy!
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Second Annual Arizona Economic Confidence Quiz

2008: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly (Il buono, il brutto, il cattivo)

How confident are you that you understand the Arizona economy? For each of the items below please provide your best estimate of the value.

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1. In the previous recession Phoenix unemployment reached 5.8 percent. What is the current Phoenix unemployment rate?

2. At this time in 2006 Arizona ranked first among all states in the rate of employment growth. What is Arizona’s rank today vs. all states in year-over-year rate of job growth?

3. During the recession of 1991, Arizona construction employment peaked at 86,900 jobs and bottomed out at 76,500 jobs, a decrease of 12%. How many construction jobs have been lost since construction last peaked at 247,500 in 2006, and what is the percent drop?

4. The Phoenix metro area is one of 27 with labor force exceeding one million workers. What is the Phoenix metro area rank today vs. the 27 largest metro areas in year-over-year rate of job growth?

5. Number of foreclosure filings in AZ in March 2008

6. At this time in 2005 single family resale homes in the Greater Phoenix area averaged 33 days on the market before sale. What is the average time on market today?

7. What is the current excess supply of housing units in the Metro Phoenix area – just physical supply, not counting those homes that are occupied but for sale?

8. How many gallons of gasoline are consumed annually in Arizona in a typical year?

9. Gross Domestic Product was up by 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008. But the National Bureau of Economic Research determines the start and end of recession by looking not only at GDP, but also several other indicators including those listed here. Circle those that were DOWN as of the last monthly report:

Employment, Personal Income, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Factory Orders

10. If half of the undocumented workers in the state migrated elsewhere in 2008, for whatever reason, what would the state’s population growth rate be for the year?

Bonus Question: Amount of new capital raised by Citigroup this year?

Think you know the answers? Well here they are. Let me know your reactions.

1. 3.5%
2. 46 , Arizona is one of 11 states losing jobs; states ranked lower include Nevada, Florida, Michigan and Rhode Island.
3. Jobs lost: 43,800 Decrease: 18%
4. 20
5. 9,199
6. 102 days, Over 3 times longer; there is a 13 month supply of resale homes, listings of 53,125 and 4,000 sales per month in March.
7. 56,000
8. 2.6 Billion. Note that an additional $1 per gallon draws $2.6 billion out of the Arizona spending stream from other consumer items.
9. Employment and retail sales were down, the others were up
10. – 1.8%

Bonus: $ 45+ Billion

© 2008 W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University